this market is likely overestimating the number of retired names:

it's unlikely that debby and francine will be retired; there's strong precedent for storms that hit the US with damage in the low billions of dollars and with casualties of ~10 people not being retired

see Sally or Idalia for examples

with that, I'm thinking we have two retired names (Beryl and Helene) and a potential third one on the way (Milton) if the worst case scenario plays out

@JustinThein tldr we're at 2, not 4

@JustinThein This should be trivial for me to calculate some statistics but it will have to wait until tomorrow.

Per wikipedia Debby, Beryl each have estimated economic damages in the billions. That puts the current expected total of retired hurricane names to 2; it's possible to retire tropical storm names but the question title specifically mentions hurricanes so I am not going to consider those. I am assuming this market will count Atlantic and Hurricane names landfalling along the Gulf coast under the category of 'Atlantic'.

Purely climatologically I expect 50% chance of no more landfalling hurricanes along the Gulf or Atlantic Coast, 35% of 1 more, and 15% of 2 or more. It's a very sketchy proxy but I'll use that for rough probabilities.

Francine's economic toll will probably also be in the billions based on its intensity and track... bringing the total up to 3... This is just a guess however..

forgot to update, but with Helene this will likely make it at least 4

first one this year - beryl

bump

bump

Edit oops thought it said 2023