Apparently I didn't learn

What's your measure function?

@RanaG just if it is closer to 100k or 50k, so the midpoint would be 75k

@strutheo so your measure is (100 minus price) vs. (price minus 50).

I asked because typically we would use log 100 minus log price

@RanaG yup boring old linear here

@strutheo In the eyes of bitcoin the area between 100 and 75 is much smaller than 50 and 75, so higher prob to be between 50 and 75 just by randomness

But I guess we are counting > 100 too

@strutheo (Just making sure I’m modeling this right) would this question be equivalent to asking “will bitcoin close higher than 75k at the end of 2024?”

@TonyPepperoni yes i believe it is equivalent to that