🆒CoolFold 100 Challenge: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order? (5/100 DONE)
🆒CoolFold 100 Challenge: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order? (5/100 DONE)
âž•
Plus
190
Ṁ36k
2120
6%
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
8%
New Pope after Francis
9%
Death Stranding 2 releases
9%
USA discontinues or changes penny coin
10%
Book of Mormon ends on Broadway
10%
Shrek 5 releases
12%
Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire
14%
Another MLB perfect game pitched
16%
1300 Pokemon Released
17%
Sagrada Familia Church completed
17%
The first $5T market cap company
17%
Skibidi Toilet ends
18%
a USA president impeached again
18%
One piece manga ends
18%
Human runs official marathon under 2h
18%
Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases
20%
Putin no longer in power in Russia
20%
Another Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out
22%
Human walks on moon again
22%
Manifold reaches 20K MAU

README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:

  • 1st event: 1% (happens soonest)

  • 2nd event: 2% (happens next)

    ...

  • 100th event: 100% (happens latest)

If there is only one unresolved answer left, it will be resolved to 100% YES even if that event does not actually happen, since we could we waiting for a very long time.

If there is a renumbering or new product (eg. the next Civilization game after 6 is named something else) I'll update the answers the best I can in the spirit of the question, a lot will change over 100+ years.

If an option becomes impossible, ask and I'll try to clarify in the answer text. If it cannot be done in a good way, we'll NA that option.

For the future mods that have to deal with this good luck.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00


Sort by:
answered1y
The Beatles music enters the public domain
3d

@strutheo By American copyright law? It seems at least Love Me Do entered the public domain in the EU in 2013.

answered1y
Civilization 7 releases
1mo

@strutheo Released Feb. 11, resolves 5%

reposted 2mo

This is one of my favorite markets, 4/100 events done so far.

bought Ṁ500 Bitcoin reaches $100... NO3mo

@strutheo Bitcoin has hit 100k

@strutheo Mario 64 has a 120 star speedrun in 1:35:28

https://www.speedrun.com/sm64

5mo
5mo

120 star just hit

9mo

shrek 5 just announced for 2026 some time

answered1y
USA Adds 51st state
9mo

apparently likely to happen some time after the US adds the 52nd state

bought Ṁ10 USA Adds 51st state NO9mo

Haha, I'll arb that

answered1y
The first $5T market cap company
9mo

coming up soon

answered1y
Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship
10mo

Happening Thursday

good find haha

uhoh (not canceled yet though!)

answered1y
Sagrada Familia Church completed
1y

theyre now claiming end of 2026 for this

reposted 1y

our first resolution 67 days after creation !

answered1y
19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th
1y

Just clarifying — would this mean:

(A) [the previous incarnation that comes BEFORE the 20th Doctor] regenerating into [the 20th Doctor],

or

(B) [the 20th Doctor] regenerating into [the next incarnation that comes AFTER the 20th Doctor]?

And a similar "(A) or (B)?" for the "25th Doctor" question.

1y

@PaintspotInfez the 20th one is revealed and becomes the new one , is what i meant

1y

@strutheo - so (A) presumably. Got it! :D

answered1y
First $100B revenue media franchise
1y

the more i learn about this, it might have happened before the question was made, so i might NA/make another

reposted 1y

so close to our first one finally!

1y

@strutheo What's the licensing agreement look like for, "Coolfold?"

@KeenenWatts haha you can dm me, anything in the true spirit of coolfold can use the #coolfold tag (maybe not be an official CoolFold challenge though)

reposted 1y

looking like sweden might be the first one!

1y

@strutheo does anything which hasn't happened by 2120 resolve 100%, or will this market be extended?

1y

@DanielTilkin im fine with it going on forever, thats for another generation to decide tbh

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.