☃️What will happen in December 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
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Plus
51
Ṁ12k
Jan 1
99.1%
NASDAQ hits an all time high
99%
Someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump receives an electoral vote
99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
98.7%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
72%
Penn State football advances to round of eight
63%
web3isgoinggreat makes at least 20 posts this month
33%
For the first time, weak AGI is declared to have been achieved by a majority of Manifold respondents in the monthly poll
33%
2 or more inches of snow fall in nyc
28%
Jimmy Carter says something
28%
another right wing media persona is revealed to have taken russia money
25%
at least 1 inch of snow on the ground already on christmas day in NYC
25%
One or more faithless electors
23%
>= 20% of Manifold respondents believe that weak superintelligence has been achieved in the monthly poll
14%
at least 1 inch of snow freshly falls in NYC on christmas day
7%
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on lebanon
6%
8.0+ magnitude earthquake
6%
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
5%
new charges brought against trump
4%
Coup attempt in the United States

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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NASDAQ hits an all time high
bought Ṁ673 NASDAQ hits an all t... YES

@strutheo
today Open 19,255.43 High 19,436.92
52-wk high 19,436.92
Previously
Category All-Time Highs Closing 19,298.76 Monday, November 11, 2024
Intraday 19,366.07 Monday, November 11, 2024
so hit intraday record

bought Ṁ50 Answer #ze58lqlls6 NO

To clarify here for bettors, "for the first time weak AGI is achieved" means that the majority threshold has to occur in December 2024, by the plain reading of the text.

There is a possibility that the standing results of the November 2024 poll will hold, and a majority will declare weak AGI achieved in November, resolving this question NO.

Someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump receives an electoral vote
sold Ṁ22 Someone other than J... YES

@AlexanderMiller wait, doesn't the electoral college vote happen in January, and the election was back in November?

Someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump receives an electoral vote
bought Ṁ100 Someone other than J... YES

lol wow

bought Ṁ40 Answer #f660774be664 NO

A quick Google suggests he doesn't have his own social media, just shared Ant & Dec social media. How to resolve if e.g. the @AntAndDec Twitter account tweets on one of these topics?

@MugaSofer I'll count that then haha