@strutheo Does "launch an orbital rocket" mean that the rocket has to actually reach orbit, or is it enough if a rocket that is intended to go to orbit lifts off successfully, even if it then fails to reach orbit?

(https://manifold.markets/WXTJ/will-the-first-rocket-launch-from-t-49e797f02ead is currently only at 39% chance)

@dp9000 oh interesting i did not see the other market. OK this one here will be about if it launches at all, we won't care if it reaches orbit. the focus here is if the spaceport will be completed in time.

Does https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SaxaVord_Spaceport count too, if a rocket launches from there first?

@dp9000 i didnt know about this, i was under the impression that Sutherland would be there first one. so will update the title to sutherland. thanks for pointing this out

suborbital counts?

@spider will make a judgement call when it happens. is there one in mind?

@strutheo your call, but personally I think requiring orbit would make for a much more interesting question. Suborbital sounding rockets are pretty common and easy, and don't really mean much in the grand scheme of things.

@spider orbital it is then!