Will there be 100 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2024?
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Jan 1
25%
chance

resolves YES if 100 or more people are infected by the end of 2024 in the US, as reported by this website

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/students.for.health.security.2024/viz/USH5N1OutbreakTracker/Dashboard1

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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bought แน€90 YES

@JonathanNankivell Not a perfect arb, beware

bought แน€100 NO

The dashboard shows 64 human cases, but the official CDC count is 58.

They mention six other cases that met a lower standard, which probably explains the discrepancy: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html

bought ๐•Š4.74 NO

@Manifold @strutheo The question is cases in the US, as reflected by the dashboard, correct?

@snazzlePop yeah that was my interpretation based on the source, will clarify in the title and desc.

sweepified!

reposted

61 human cases