Will USA leave NATO or refuse Article 5 by the end of 2025?
Mini
25
Ṁ10392026
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
resolves YES if the USA formally files whatever legal and diplomatic paperwork necessary to formally leave the defensive union. this will not resolve NO for an announcement of intention.
Get
1,000and
1.00
Sort by:
@strutheo respectfully that a bit silly, paperwork or not, membership is nothing without intention to honour article 5. The moment the US make it clear they will not respond NATO is dead
@Odoacre i sort of agree re: enforcement being key, but i cant really trust anything trump says at this point , so we kind of need an action to tie the resolution to
@strutheo ok that's fair, but suppose he refuses a summons for article 4, that's an action. Would it be enough?
Related questions
Related questions
Will the US announce reduction of troops stationed in Europe by April 2025?
78% chance
Will any EU country or NATO stop sharing intelligence with the United States by the end of 2025?
34% chance
Will Article 4 of NATO be triggered before the end of 2026?
45% chance
Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2026?
35% chance
Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2027?
35% chance
Will NATO still exist by the end of 2025?
95% chance
Will NATO article 5 (collective Defense) be instigated before the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028?
36% chance
Will Trump withdraw from NATO in 2025?
20% chance
Will the US quit NATO by 2028?