Resolves to NO if a human walks on the Moon first.

Resolves to YES if a time zone is determined for the Moon first, as agreed upon by some preponderance of relevant international bodies. The details of this time zone will not be considered, but rather just its existence.

Artemis 3 is nominally planned to deliver humans to the Moon in 2026...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program#:~:text=Launch%20is%20scheduled%20for%20no,the%20launch%20of%20SLS%2FOrion.

... although Manifold is skeptical: https://manifold.markets/browse/for-you?q=Artemis+human&s=newest&f=open&ct=ALL

On the other hand, ESA has expressed interest in establishing a time zone, in particular for artificial satellites to be deployed around the Moon. The timeline for this seems a little fuzzier.

https://www.esa.int/Applications/Navigation/Telling_time_on_the_Moon