Will Meta release an open source language model that outperforms GPT-4 by the end of 2024
Plus
22
Ṁ1035Jan 1
67%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve to YES if Meta releases an open source model that acheives a higher average score than GPT-4 on the following benchmarks by the end of 2024:
HellaSwag (few-shot): 0.953
MMLU (few-shot): 0.864
AI2 Reasoning Challenge (ARC): 0.963
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
Related news: Meta currently training Llama 3, and plans to ramp up to almost 600K H100s equivalent compute by the end of the year https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2QARHJR1sZ/.
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will an open source model beat GPT-4 in 2024?
65% chance
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by the end of 2024?
68% chance
Will OpenAI release a model better than GPT-4o without test time compute before EOY 2024?
74% chance
Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?
85% chance
Will it cost less than 100k USD to train and run a language model that outperforms GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks by the end 2024?
85% chance
Will an Open Source LLM Surpass any GPT-4 model in Elo Rating on Chatbot Arena on december 31, 2024?
96% chance
Will any open source LLM with <20 billion parameters outperform GPT-4 on most language benchmarks by the end of 2024?
13% chance
Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
65% chance
Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before the end of 2024?
3% chance