Roughly, for a regret to be strong should mean that I feel that I would counterfactually prefer that I had never discovered Manifold. I'll go more by how I feel than a reasoned analysis of the exact impacts (though of course the reasoned analysis will affect how I feel). Feel free to ask about hypotheticals, and I'll try to answer whether I would count those as a strong regret.

I won't bet on this market.

To avoid any potential moral hazard caused by this market, regret does not count if it seems fairly likely that it was due to the actions of someone trying to manipuate this market.