Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump makes a serious attempt to run for president in the 2028 election cycle. A "serious attempt" would include officially announcing his candidacy, filing paperwork with the Federal Election Commission, or making clear public statements about his intention to run.
Background
Donald Trump served as the 45th President of the United States from 2017 to 2021
The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution limits presidents to two terms in office
Trump has already served one full term (2017-2021) and is currently running for a potential second term in the 2024 election
Some of Trump's allies, including former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon, have suggested strategies to potentially circumvent the two-term limit
Republican Congressman Andy Ogles has proposed amending the 22nd Amendment to allow for a third term, though this would require significant political support
Considerations
Constitutional barriers would make a third term legally challenging without an amendment
Trump's age would be 82 in 2028, which could be a factor in his decision
The outcome of the 2024 election will likely influence any future political ambitions
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00