
Will the Department of Government Efficiency lead to at least 100,000 federal government layoffs by 4th of July 2026?
Mini
12
Ṁ5362026
84%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Update 2025-08-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Buy-outs will not be counted toward the total; only other cuts/layoffs will count.
Only layoffs that sustain past any court orders will be counted (layoffs later blocked or reversed by courts will not count).
Get
1,000and
1.00
Sort by:
@polymathematic I'm not quite sure, I'm going to need to end up finding better sources, open to ideas from commentators.
Estimates seem to range 50k-290k.
I would not by default include buy-outs, but only other cuts or layoffs, that do manage to sustain past any court orders.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?
50% chance
Federal government employment decreases by >500,000 before January 2026
3% chance
Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling SLS before 2029?
76% chance
Will the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) lose more than 50% of its employees between EOY2024 and EOY2025?
45% chance
How many entire government agencies will be eliminated by within one year of Trump taking office?
How many government employees will Trump and Elon cut in 2025? [Kalshi]
-
Will there be a government shutdown before April 2026?
48% chance
Will DOGE/Trump manage to shutdown at least 100 Federal agencies by 2029?
17% chance
Will there be >15% unemployment at any time prior to January 1st 2026?
1% chance
Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling Blue Origin's Human Landing System before 2029?
23% chance