Resolves YES if GPT-5 is able to gain a rating of 1000 or more in Codeforces; resolves NO otherwise.
GPT-4's rating on Codeforces is 392; GPT-3.5's rating on Codeforces is 260: https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/113910
1,000
1.00I assume GPT-5's rating will be evaluated in the same way as GPT-4's and GPT-3.5's was? Just a single prompt with the statement, and out comes the solution. No prompting techniques.
Added this market here because I thought it could be classified as third party validated. https://manifold.markets/group/third-party-validated-predictive-ma-6bab86c0b8b0/questions
I think gpt-4 could do well with advanced prompting, but somehow its rating is really low. I think it all comes down to the way openai evaluates it so I put this at like 50%
For context, AlphaCode which was created 1.5 years ago (and which is not very complex and not very expensive) is 1000+. IIRC it was ~1350 when published, and probably a bit less now because the average rating got lower due to some changes in the rating system.