It seems very unlikely that the release of GPT-4 will resolve this. However the market does not close until 2027, and I will leave it open until then in case the information is either (credibly) leaked or OpenAI decides to release it after the fact. If neither of those occurs the market will resolve N/A

Hey, I think this market should be resolved. From what I can tell OpenAI people treated the semianalysis leak (https://www.semianalysis.com/p/gpt-4-architecture-infrastructure) seriously and it reports 280B active parameters for 13 trillion tokens, so 13T tokens * 0.28T params x 6 flops/token/param = 21.84 x 10^24 flops.

I think the semianalysis leak is probably accurate, but I'm being cautious about resolving from leaks. I don't think there's any rush to resolve this now when I can just wait and see if more information comes out?

hmm, I find this leak highly credible because ~every AI person I know takes it seriously. Seems fine to wait though.

(Epistemic status: I’m doing all this calculation from memory so might be wrong) GPT-3 was trained on 3.2e23 FLOPs (general calculation is C=6ND, N number of params and D datasize), I think we should expect around twice the size and 50x the dataset size, in which case 3.2e25 FLOPs should be reasonable for GPT-3. This would imply a resolution of 32 to this question. 150 is way too high imo

pretty close! 22