At the start of 2026, will the number of planets in the Solar System, as per the IAU, be exactly 8?
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Dec 31
95%
chance

IAU = International Astronomical Union

I'm posting this question in case we find a new planet. (That's not a resolution criterion. If there is any other change to the number of planets, I will resolve negatively)

  • Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolves based on the IAU-recognized number of planets at the start of 2026.

    • Resolves YES if it is exactly 8 at that time; NO otherwise.

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It's exactly 8 right now, so can't this resolve YES?

@IsaacKing Not until the start of 2026.

@wadimiusz ...That's not what the title says? Something that happens before 2026 has clearly happened "by" 2026.

@IsaacKing "I'm posting this question in case we find a new planet. (That's not a resolution criterion. If there is any other change to the number of planets, I will resolve negatively)". In other words, I'll resolve YES unless we discover a new planet or destroy Mars or something by the end of 2025. I'm sorry if my command of the English language failed me and I did not grasp the meaning of the word "by" when creating this question as fully as a native speaker would have, but the linguistic pragmatics of the question (making the other interpretation meaningless, because otherwise I'd have to resolve YES as soon as I had created the market), as well as the description of the question, hopefully make the matter clear — see, for example, the other comment about evidence for a ninth planet.

@wadimiusz I would recommend "*At* the start of 2026"

@IsaacKing Thanks, renamed.

Consider the mounting evidence for Planet 9: The Case Strengthens for Planet 9 | News | Astrobiology (nasa.gov)

predicts YES

By the start of 2026, will the number of planets in the Solar System, as per the International Astronomical Union, be exactly 8?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition