By the start of 2033, will at least a billion people be alive? | Manifold

By the start of 2033, will at least a billion people be alive?

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Did you mean "there will be >1bn people alive the whole time until 2033", or did you mean "on 2033-jan-01 there will be >1bn people alive"?

@Jotto999 The latter

@wadimiusz Highly nitpicking point here, but you should in that case phrase your markets as "on X date" rather than using the word "by." By is more ambiguous.

@akrasiac I appreciate a fellow nitpick. Thanks!

If not, I won’t be one of them, so I won’t care how this resolves.

Misread the market and thought it said 10 billion 😭

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