Will the United States will have an Asian-American First Lady before they have an Asian-American president?
Will the United States will have an Asian-American First Lady before they have an Asian-American president?
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Resolves YES if the United States has a First Lady of Asian or partial Asian descent before a president is elected who is of Asian or partial Asian descent.
Resolves NO if the United States elects an Asian-American president who is married to an Asian-American woman.
Question does not resolve if the president is a woman of non-Asian descent or is unmarried.
Partial Asian descent will be defined as having one grandparent who is of fully East, South, or Central Asian descent, or Middle Eastern (but not North African) descent.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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