What will public US debt be as a percent of GDP for Q4 2024?
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3
Ṁ252
Jan 24
98.1%
> 100%
91%
> 115%
66%
> 120%
50%
> 122%
41%
> 125%
19%
> 130%

Resolves based on FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S which seems to be updated sometime after the quarterly GDP numbers are released, so we'll aim for late January 2025.

I will add more options if the numbers move significantly outside the current range. All markets that are correct will resolve YES.

As a starting point, it is 121.7% as of Q4 2023.

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Up to 122.3% in Q1 2024. Seems to move about 1% per quarter on avg. With only 1 move not in a recession that was greater than 3%. Mean it is extremely likely to be between 116% and 128% with it only going over 130 in a recession.