Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) formally enters into a governing coalition with at least one established mainstream German political party (such as CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP, or Alliance 90/The Greens) at either the federal or state (Land) level, resulting in a signed coalition agreement, before or on December 31, 2026.

The market will resolve to "No" if no such official coalition agreement is formed by the specified date.

For resolution, verifiable evidence of a signed coalition agreement published by the participating parties, or official government formation documents, will be required. Casual parliamentary cooperation on specific votes, tacit support for motions, or agreements at the municipal/local level will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

Background

The "Brandmauer" (firewall) is a long-standing political consensus among Germany's established mainstream parties to prevent formal cooperation with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). This unwritten rule aims to safeguard democratic institutions and values by isolating parties considered to be anti-democratic or extremist.

However, the AfD has seen significant electoral gains in recent years, becoming the second-largest party in the Bundestag following the 2025 federal election. This has led to increased discussions and pressure regarding the "Brandmauer." While mainstream parties, including the CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP, have explicitly ruled out forming governing coalitions with the AfD due to its extremist views, there have been isolated instances of parliamentary cooperation on specific legislative motions, particularly at the local and, occasionally, state levels.

• Update 2025-10-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A CDU minority government tolerated by the AfD (without a formal coalition agreement) will NOT count as a "Yes" resolution. Only a signed coalition agreement between the AfD and a mainstream party will qualify.