Will the Europa Clipper mission last at least 4 years after arriving at Jupiter?
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2034
80%
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The mission is currently planned to conduct 4 years of science observations after arriving at Jupiter.

This resolves N/A if the orbiter never successfully achieves orbit around Jupiter (e.g., because it blows up on the launch pad, a gravity assist goes wrong, or something goes wrong during orbital insertion). If communication is lost during orbital insertion such that the orbiter's status is unknown for 8 weeks, this resolves N/A.

This resolves NO if, after successfully achieving Jovian orbit, either (1) the mission officially ends before 4 years are up, or (2) contact with the orbiter is lost for more than 8 weeks.

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Normally I would bet on a NASA spacecraft outlasting its primary mission (engineered to last at least 4 years with high confidence...), but in this case they have this issue going on:

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/07/nasas-flagship-mission-to-europa-has-a-problem-vulnerability-to-radiation/

Either they'll have to do mission-delaying surgery on the power electronics, or to try to mitigate the problem in other ways. I don't know which they'll go for, but either one lowers my confidence.