Will the cybertruck kill a pedestrian by 2025?
Will the cybertruck kill a pedestrian by 2025?
Plus
22
Ṁ20432026
18%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
There are no additional conditions.
Please comment if you are aware of an incident.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will a Cybertruck be reported to be involved in any FSD-related fatality by the end of 2025?
58% chance
How many Cybertrucks will be delivered in 2025?
Will Tesla sell 25 million cybertrucks before 2040?
18% chance
Cybertruck will outsell F150 by 2026
6% chance
Will Cybertruck 2026 receive a full five star safety rating?
30% chance
Will any hack of a Tesla vehicle result in someone's death or serious injury before 2026?
24% chance
Will there be a cybertruck or a model descended from the cybertruck on mars before 2100
14% chance
Will a cyber attack against self driving vehicles intentionally kill 100+ people in a day before end of 2027?
16% chance
Will the CyberTruck achieve the IIHS rating of Top Safety Pick+?
74% chance
Will average american consumers be able to buy a new Cybertruck on June 1st 2027?
54% chance