Arbitrage opportunity:

Can you provide more clarification about what it means for ChatGPT or similar to be working >50% of the time?

@astroblob I think the spirit of the question is trying to ignore if chatgpt is temporarily down just on that day/hour/minute, that's why that ">50%" thing is there. Basically what I'm saying is that I won't just got to the webpage once and try it once and and then resolve to whatever happens. There's a lot of uninteresting reasons why it might not work temporarily at that exact moment, and predicting that is not interesting. However, if they underfund it or have stopped maintaining it to such a degree that it is now essentially unusable (<50% uptime), then I would want that resolve as a NO.

So, I would try it several times on Jan 2 and more in January in 2025 and if it works >50% for those tests then I would resolve it as YES, otherwise NO. I would strive to calculate some crude uptime around that time period and resolve it based on that.

didn't expect it to happen so fast :)

edit: this is a joke by the way, chatgpt _is_ down but I doubt it will stay down for more than a few minutes/hours. (If it is unusable on january 2025 tho this market resolves to NO)

What if it is Microsoft or some other successor running it, maybe with slightly modified branding but the same service?

@Thomas42 It's kind of hard to draw the line here. I am open to any suggestions you have of where the line could be drawn.

I will say that, from the description, if I can go to open ai's website and talk to a chatbot in January 2025 this question will very likely resolve to YES.

If Sam and all the openAI employees leave open ai and start up a microsoft version of chatgpt, under some new entity within microsoft, and this thing is pretty much identical to chatgpt (maybe even uses the same code/model), and the original service on the open ai website is shutdown (and maybe users are suggested to move to the microsoft version), then I think this question would very likely resolve to NO.

There's an enormous amount of grey scenarios in between that I will think about later. Like what happens if the new microsoft entity operates the existing openai chatgpt service. I guess that would resolve to YES but I would really have to think about it a lot.

"beyond 2024", is this a weird way of saying "in 2025"? How far beyond?

Eventually you won't be able to go to their website and type in a query because you'll be extinct.

@MartinRandall I'll go to the website on like Jan 1st 2025 and do the test (maybe Jan 2, we'll see).

@zzlk Maybe change the title to "in Jan 2025"?