This market resolves YES if Sam Bankman-Fried is imprisoned for any crime, in any country, before January 1st 2030. Jail, or pre-conviction detainment of any sort doesn't count, nor does a suspended sentence. As soon as he is convicted, sentenced to imprisonment, and that sentence actually carried out this market resolves YES, otherwise on January 1st 2030 this market resolves NO.
1,000
1.00This question resolves once he actually reports to prison. I haven't read anything about that happening yet, though it seems almost certain to happen. I intend to leave this market open until it does. Though rather unlikely, he yet may die, receive a pardon, escape from jail and flee the country, or something else that means he doesn't actually end up in prison.
That said, I might not immediately notice when that happens. If you notice it before I do, please post a link here to a news article about Sam Bankman-Fried reporting to prison and I will resolve the question.
