What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 48 months?
Mini
8
Ṁ10012026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
10%
20-29%
11%
30-39%
14%
40-49%
17%
50-59%
27%
60-69%
20%
70-79%
1.3%
80-89%
The 12 month phase 3 data indicates 75% vaccine efficacy of R21 in annual malaria sites in children at 12 months after the first dose was delivered. Phase 2b data at a 42 month timepoint showed 71% efficacy after four total doses (Abstract here, #6949).
Resolves upon publication of peer-reviewed data from the R21 team at Oxford (expected to be before September 1st, 2026).
Vaccine efficacy is defined as the primary endpoint for time to clinical malaria in seasonal sites, as defined in the paper linked above.
1Day Sooner has an R21 Status Report available here that may be useful.
More malaria-related questions can be found on our Manifold account here.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 24 months?
Will it be confirmed that >2M doses of the R21 malaria vaccine are delivered in a single month before January 1st, 2025?
41% chance
Will the number of children vaccinated with 3 doses of the R21 malaria vaccine reach 5M before January 1st, 2025?
45% chance
How many people will be vaccinated with the R21 vaccine in 2024
Will the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial?
62% chance
What total number of R21 malaria vaccine doses will be distributed in 2024?
Will the R21 malaria vaccine be distributed in 15 countries before July 1st, 2025?
48% chance
What will be the lowest cost per dose observed for the R21 malaria vaccine before January 1st, 2026? (currently $3.90)
Will the M72/AS01E tuberculosis vaccine candidate have an efficacy of 50% or higher in the phase 3 trial?
59% chance
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against malaria before 2028?
45% chance