What data source will be used for this?

@EvanDaniel if it is close enough to warrant the need for it, an average of all major sources deemed credible by the United States scientific community.

trend is about 0.2 per decade or 0.14 per 7 years, 2023 looks like it will be something like idk 0.09 above trend, eyeballing standard deviation of annual temperature looks like idk 0.1, so it looks like maybe a half standard deviation event, though there's some uncertainty in this year's temperature and in the trend as well

@StevenK 2023 is looking a lot more off-trend now, maybe 0.18 degrees if I eyeball it https://berkeleyearth.org/august-2023-temperature-update/

August 2023 Temperature Update - Berkeley Earth

August 2023 was the warmest month since record-keeping began in 1850. El Niño is strengthening, and 2023 is virtually certain to become a record warm year.

@StevenK however:

[Note: These predictions are based on the statistical relationships observed in past years. Given the highly unusual conditions currently present in the North Atlantic and elsewhere, these predictions may be less accurate than we’d typically expect.]

Beautiful lib-bait question

@lukres You want to put your mana where your mouth is and buy more no, chump?

@Lorxus I have increased my bet to Ṁ100, Sir. Care to fill my limit orders? After all, we are entering global boiling.