Who will run for the 2028 Republican nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers]
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Plus
16
Ṁ6253
2028
40%
Ron Desantis
13%
Donald Trump, Sr
39%
Greg Abbott
34%
Nikki Haley
52%
Ted Cruz
4%
Mike Pence
30%
Tim Scott
20%
Vivek Ramaswamy
20%
Tucker Carlson
58%
Glenn Youngkin
5%
Kristi Noem
31%
Mike Johnson
17%
Matt Gaetz
17%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
34%
Lauren Boebert
50%
Tom Cotton
4%
Elon Musk
4%
Kari Lake
45%
Sarah Sanders
41%
Chris Sununu

Resolution Criteria

For each candidate listed, the market will resolve YES if they:

  • Officially announce their candidacy for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, OR

  • File paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to run for president as a Republican in 2028, OR

  • Takes part in an official Republican presidential debate, OR

  • Appear on any state's Republican presidential primary ballot in 2028

The market will resolve NO for candidates who:

  • Explicitly rule out running in the 2028 election during 2028

  • Do not take any of the above actions

  • Run as an independent or for another party's nomination

The resolution will be after Super Tuesday.

On Adding Answers:

  • I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market

  • If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve, that answer will resolve N/A

Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. The unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.

I will reserve judgment on whether somebody's eligible for the presidency until they either choose not to run on Super Tuesday or a consensus of state courts of last resort (or the Supreme Court, should it get involved) finds that they are ineligible for the presidency.

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Elon Musk
bought Ṁ100 Elon Musk NO

Not a Natural Born US Citizen

@FergusArgyll Given the significant ambiguity regarding who is a natural-born US citizen[1] and the significant headwinds towards a possible constitutional amendment revoking the natural-born citizen clause[2]. I will reserve judgment on whether somebody's eligible for the presidency until they either choose not to run on Super Tuesday or a consensus of state courts of last resort (or the Supreme Court, should it get involved) finds that they are ineligible for the presidency.


[1] Eugene D. Mazo, “Rethinking Presidential Eligibility Forum: Election Law and the Presidency,” Fordham L. Rev. 85, no. 3 (2016–2017): 1045–72; Paul Clement and Neal Katyal, “On the Meaning of ‘Natural Born Citizen’ Constitutional Law: Commentary,” Harv. L. Rev. F. 128, no. 5 (2014–2015): 161–64; Lawrence B. Solum, “Originalism and the Natural Born Citizen Clause,” Mich. L. Rev. First Impressions 107 (2008–2009): 22

[2] Ilya Shapiro et al., The Proposed Amendments, NCC Constitutional Convention, Constitution Drafting Project, (National Constitution Center), 9, accessed December 13, 2024 https://constitutioncenter.org; Akhil Reed Amar, America’s Unwritten Constitution: The Precedents and Principles We Live By (New York: Basic Books, 2012), 452–56

@AaronSimansky 100%

I was giving a reason for my confidence not complaining about it's inclusion...