Only salutes on or after January 21st 2025 count. I will resolve according to my judgment, based on credible video or photo/eyewitness evidence. Think of a "clear and convincing" but not necessarily "beyond a reasonable doubt" standard of evidence. For reference, Elon Musk's Nazi salute on January 20th would have counted and not been close.
Salutes before inauguration day 2029 will count even if Donald Trump is no longer acting as president.
Update 2025-21-01 (PST): - The scope is global; salutes from any country are considered. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-22-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications on Resolution Criteria:
Affirmative intent not required: Confirmation of affirmative intent to praise Hitler is not necessary.
Trolling counts: Performing the gesture as an effort to troll will count.
Repeated gestures at rallies: Performing the gesture repeatedly at political rallies will count despite denials.
Media controversy with evidence: If there is widespread controversy in the media about whether somebody was doing a Nazi salute along with video or other substantial evidence, it will count.
Non-genuine gestures do not count: Raising the right arm at a medical exam or hailing a taxi does not count.
Update 2025-03-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any apparent Nazi salute counts regardless of intent:
A salute performed to mock or oppose other Nazi saluters will count.
This clarification applies even if the gesture is made for trolling purposes or as a form of satire.
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@MalachiteEagle finding a video makes it significantly more obvious but i personally would not count this as a nazi salute because:
- the position is held for a brief moment. this doesn't appear to be a gesture in of itself as much as a single cherry picked part of the vague hand motions he was doing the whole time
- the position isn't even in the right spot. specifically:
- arm is parallel to the plane of the torso, as opposed to facing up and forwards
- the arm is slack. again proving this was just an intermediary position
- the hand is vertical, palm facing outward. in a sieg heil the palm faces down
@MalachiteEagle he already did it before market was openws. Please specify what we're betting on.
@AbuElBanat sorry if this has been answered (didn't see it), but what about someone doing it to clearly mock someone else who had done it (e.g. making fun of Musk)?
@JRR good question. I think the answer has to be yes, to avoid even more resolution ambiguity. Any apparent Nazi salute will count regardless of whether its intent is to support or oppose other Nazi saluters.
@MalachiteEagle Actors are more aware about how their physical actions look from the perspective of a bystander/camera so are a lot less likely to accidentally do a salute.
@Shai Does this apply at a lesser extent to women? Honestly IDK. But women are definitely less likely to 'troll'.
@AbuElBanat Should have been a tell that the market was grossly inaccurate :)
@JussiVilleHeiskanen although curiously liv boeree doesn't like it when it's Bannon
Curious discrepancy
@JussiVilleHeiskanen dunno, haven't seen Liv boeree speak much online, but she seems much more on the ball than others. Like not fallen in to the weird psychedelics mind warping that e.g. musk and fridman appear to have fallen into
@JussiVilleHeiskanen a look at her twitter gives an impression of total online addiction but still coherent π€£
@MalachiteEagle Or maybe she just believes that Elon's gesture was innocent and Bannon's was intentional?
@MalachiteEagle Well she's pretty clearly saying that intentionally doing a nazi salute is abhorrent.
@MalachiteEagle Even on this website the majority of people do not think Elon's salute was intentional. https://manifold.markets/Alfie/did-elon-musk-intentionally-do-a-na
@MalachiteEagle You'll have to bet again to earn mana at my expense.
You might also like this market:
I forget sometimes I've muted half of Twitter, and then when I look at a page like Liv Boeree's I'm so confused
Like it's a really specific ideological position they clearly feel strongly about, but I can spend 10 minutes looking at that feed and still have no clue what that ideological position is π€£