Will Iran announce by June 4 that it has developed a nuclear weapons capability?
Mini
18
Ṁ569Jun 6
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is one of 25 props in the tenth annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2025-narcissist-forecasting-contest
It will be adjudicated by judges as described in the fine print of the entry form:
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?
10% chance
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?
12% chance
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2025?
13% chance
Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before 2026?
14% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
38% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
31% chance
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
36% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?
40% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2050?
68% chance
Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?
68% chance