MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2030
Mini
4
Ṁ373
2031
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

This questions resolves to yes if China submits to voluntary inspections regimes of their public and private AI facilities in accordance with compute / memory caps imposed by an international AI regulatory body by the end of 2030.

#AI
#Technical AI Timelines
#OpenAI
#AI Safety
#🇨🇳 China
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
1 Comment
Sort by:

2025 market https://manifold.markets/AlexanderLeCampbell/china-will-submit-to-voluntary-caps

Related questions

Will the US ban AI models produced in China in 2025?
-5% 1d3% chance
Will any developed country establish a limit on compute for AI training by 2026?
17% chance
Limits on AI model size by 2026?
5% chance
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2026?
52% chance
100GW AI training run before 2031?
33% chance
China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2025
1% chance
China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2026
10% chance
1GW AI training run before 2027?
75% chance
Will there be a global "pause" on cutting-edge AI research due to government regulation by 2025?
5% chance
10GW AI training run before 2029?
20% chance

Related questions

Will the US ban AI models produced in China in 2025?
3% chance
China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2025
1% chance
Will any developed country establish a limit on compute for AI training by 2026?
17% chance
China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2026
10% chance
Limits on AI model size by 2026?
5% chance
1GW AI training run before 2027?
75% chance
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2026?
52% chance
Will there be a global "pause" on cutting-edge AI research due to government regulation by 2025?
5% chance
100GW AI training run before 2031?
33% chance
10GW AI training run before 2029?
20% chance
Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules
BrowseElectionNewsAbout