Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?
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29%
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Resolves YES if Russian ground troops enter at least one of Estonia, Lithuania or Latvia and the AP calls it an "invasion".
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The community prediction on Metaculus for a related question ("Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?") is currently 4% (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8786/russian-annexation-in-the-baltics-before-2035/).
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