If Manifold.Love fails, I will resolve to multiple answers according to how much each contributes to the failure of Manifold.Love
Edit: since this is a linked market, the weights sums up to 100%. I might do something like 60%, 30%, 10%, or some other weight allocation according to how much each reason contributes to the failure of Manifold.Love
1,000
1.00Here's how I described the initial mechanism for a normie audience:
The platform is a highly interesting spin on the concept of prediction markets: you don't match yourself, but the community matches each other by betting play money (won on Manifold's regular prediction markets) on who is most likely to enter into a relationship that lasts 6 months or longer. In this way, the market takes care of your search for a partner.
This can be further dumbed down into four statements:
• Not matching yourself
• Community matching each other
• Using play money
• You win if your matched relationships are successful
Imagine the Instagram ad that presents these simple statements within 30 seconds, together with nice animations and royalty-free music. Not so complicated anymore, is it?
The site is never marketed well enough outside of the rationalist-adjacent community, and there are not enough rationalist-adjacent people to sustain the site.
It is never able to get a critical mass of cis women.
I just realized that not only Manifold Love, but Manifold as a whole has zero presence on Instagram. You might have heard of Instagram, it's the lowest common denominator of a platform among normie women. If you try finding a female partner on the Internet without any particular existing attachment to any community, creating an Instagram account is one of the first things you would do, because that's the place where most women link to, and where you would usually get to slide into DMs. No presence there is a strong indicator that Manifold Love never even seriously tried to market itself to non-rationalists, or women as a whole.