Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership by this month?
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41
แน€19k
Jan 1
1%
July 2024
1%
Aug 2024
1%
Sep 2024
1%
Oct 2024
1%
Nov 2024
1%
Dec 2024
16%
Jan 2025
30%
Feb 2025
60%
Mar 2025
60%
Apr 2025
68%
May 2025
69%
Jun 2025
70%
July 2025
70%
Aug 2025
72%
Sep 2025

This market resolves when Tiktok has either been banned in the US, or has changed ownership

Example of what counts as banned in the US:
Tiktok app no long appears on US ios app store

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@AmmonLam A bunch of these can resolve.

@mods April, May, and June can resolve and make me a paid creator and I'll resolve things in a timely manner...

bought แน€2,000 May 2024 NO

@AmmonLam April and May can resolve as NO, thank you!

bought แน€10 Nov 2024 NO

clarifying, a bill passing which lays out conditions under which tiktok would be banned does not in itself count as a ban, right? the app would actually have to be banned from the app stores?

bought แน€10 Dec 2024 NO

@AmmonLam thanks for the clarification, in that case iโ€™m betting this down since i expect a long time in between the bill passing and the ban actually being instated

@turtlepurple added more answers with a longer horizon so you can bet accordingly

@AmmonLam thank you! wait, will any of these individual months resolve NO before the market as a whole expires? (wondering because cash flow constrained)

@turtlepurple once each month ended I would resolve it