Will we replace the calendar by end of 2040?
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Resolves YES if Gregorian calendar (mostly concerning years counting) is no more in use before the day that is currently said to be 01.01.2041.

Resolves NO otherwise.

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Does replacing the Gregorian calendar with some other one that works the same but has a better leap year rule count?

One example would be the Revised Julian calendar, which currently has ecclesiastical usage in several Eastern Orthodox churches.

While the Gregorian calendar has 2 leap years ending in 00 out of every 8, the Revised Julian one has 2 out of 9. The resulting average year length of 365.2422... days is more accurate than Gregorian 365.2425.

The two calendars will be the same until Monday, 2800-02-28.

The two calendars will be the same until Monday, 2800-02-28.

Well, since there isn't any detectable difference, it resolves NO.

Makes sense.

There are likely detectable differences prior to that date if one looks at religious uses (date of Easter), but that is outside of the scope of the question, I suppose.