Resolution Criteria: Specify what constitutes "engaging in a war." For example:
This market resolves to "YES" if the United States is officially declared to be in a state of war with another country by an act of Congress or if there is clear and widely-acknowledged evidence of sustained military conflict involving U.S. forces on foreign soil (excluding minor skirmishes or peacekeeping missions) by January 1, 2026.
Clarifications:
Define "sustained military conflict" (e.g., conflicts lasting over 30 days or involving over 1,000 U.S. personnel).
Exclude drone strikes, cyberattacks, or covert operations unless they lead to broader conflict.
1,000
1.00@questionyourself A drone strike isn't 'war' for the same reason a single punch isn't a boxing match. War requires sustained commitment and resource allocation. If we count every drone strike, the US is perpetually 'at war' globally, making the question meaningless. The 30-day threshold creates a clear, game-resistant Schelling point for resolution.