Will Donald Trump be inaugurated to a THIRD term as the US President?
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2029
4%
chance

This market will resolve to YES if Donald J. Trump is sworn in to a third term as President Of The United States before February 1 2029.

Sep 14, 9:26pm: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated to a third term as the US President? → Will Donald Trump be inaugurated to a THIRD term as the US President?

  • Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Per the creator, the following conditions apply:

    • Any sequence of events that leads to Donald Trump being officially sworn in as president for a third 4-year term will satisfy the market.

    • Temporary delegation of presidential powers (e.g., due to illness or incapacitation) does not count.

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What happens if he runs as VP but then the top of the ticket has an "accident" between election day and inauguration day?

@MartinRandall explicitly a not-allowed strategy

@Tripping by the market or by the Constitution?

@MartinRandall Any sequence of events that leads to him being officially sworn in as president for a third 4-year term, satisfies the market. Temporary delegation of presidential powers (Article II, Section 1, Clause 6) due to illness or incapacitation (e.g. general anaesthesia) does not count, as this is just a temporary suspension of the second term.

I don't know why people are betting YES; the 22nd Amendment would need to be repealed in addition to Trump actually remaining popular enough to win not only a second, but a third term.

predicts NO

@Annika Could also pack the supreme court with loyalists or ignore an adverse ruling

@MartinRandall He’s also old as dirt. He might not live another four years.

bought Ṁ1 YES

@abcdef Becozse Trump can use the No one will Stop Me Loop Hole. The Constituation means nothing when Not enforced