If Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election or there is a peace treaty signed concluding the Russia-Ukraine war before the election this market will resolve to N/A. If Donald Trump does win the 2024 presidential election:
This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026, there is a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war that consists of a 30 day period where the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's daily updates report that less than 100 Russian soldiers have been killed in combat.
This market will resolve to NO otherwise.
Sweeps update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.
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1.00@ChristopherRandles Oh that’s a good question. I didn’t really intend that interpretation, but I agree that’s what the description implies so I’ll count it. I will say that if there is a conclusive end to the war before the election I’ll resolve NA since that’s a pretty ambiguous case.
@voodoo Why? Ukraine would be under more pressure. Less aid, a somewhat more russia friendly president. Plus, Trump loves making deals, he sees that as the coolest thing