Will there be ceasefires in the Ukraine/Russia and Israel/Hamas wars during the Trump presidency?
Will there be ceasefires in the Ukraine/Russia and Israel/Hamas wars during the Trump presidency?
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Trump claims to be the great deal maker, and a peacetime president. Will there be a ceasefire that lasts at least 24hours in each of the Ukraine/Russia and Israel/Hamas wars?
The ceasefires don’t need to be at the same time, but both must be while Trump is president. Armistices, treaties, or other formal war endings will also qualify. Resolves NO at the end of the second Trump presidency.
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to be absolutely clear about my bet here (for my own moral conscious lol) i consider these likely within the next 4 years. whether donnie t has a huge effect on it im not bullish
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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