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Will an LLM have been used as part of the composition a work which wins the Nobel Prize in Literature by 2040?
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2040
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Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030?
71% chance
Will an LLM do a task that the user hadn't requested in a notable way before 2026?
92% chance
Will any major science fiction short story markets lift their categorical ban on writing with LLMs by 2030?
43% chance
Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030?
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Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?
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Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?
7% chance
Will "large reasoning models" significantly outperform traditional LLMs in creative writing by 2026?
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Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on IMO before 2026?
31% chance
Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2025?
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Will an LLM consistently create 5x5 word squares by 2026?
83% chance
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