Who will win a Nobel Prize before 2030? [Unlinked free response] | Manifold

Who will win a Nobel Prize before 2030? [Unlinked free response]

Mini

14

Ṁ1228

2030

1D

1W

1M

ALL

98.6%

Demis Hassabis

96%

Daron Acemoglu

61%

Salman Rushdie

53%

David Deutsch

52%

Peter Zoller

52%

Gilles Brassard

50%

Can Xue

50%

Susumu Kitagawa

50%

Robert S Langer

50%

Krzysztof Matyjaszewski

50%

Jun Ye

49%

Peter Shor

48%

Charles Henry Bennett

47%

Olga Botner

43%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

36%

Chi-Huey Wong

35%

Omar Farha

35%

William Jorgesen

35%

Omar M. Yaghi

34%

Jean Fréchet

Any laureate who wins a Nobel prize will resolve YES at the time of winning. The others will resolve NO by the market close. Only prizes received after 2023 (when this market opened) count.

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Hope we soon get a search field for those type of market

William Jorgesen

Meant Jorgensen, but there is probably no homonimy risks

Am I allowed to submit answers after they are already true?

@Joshua No. I will clarify in the description

I mean prizes after this market is created, but where no one submitted them as an answer before it became true. But also as I type this, I realize this is no different from just making my own "Is 1+1 = 2" market so it is a silly question.

@Joshua Yes, that is allowed. There's no "other" option anyways so that can compensate for that

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