Glioblastoma (GBM) is a malignant brain tumor which has an overall survival average of >2 years. Current FDA approved treatments which positively impact survival include surgical resection, temozolomide chemotherapy, radiation, and tumor treating fields (TTF). The most recent approval which would qualify was a TTF device called Optune, which was approved in 2015.

For this market to resolve YES, the drug(s) or device must be novel — drug repurposing doesn’t count unless the delivery system is truly novel. Surgical and radiological advancements generally will not count: however, surgically implantable devices which are novel and confer a survival benefit do count. Market will resolve YES even if the novel treatment is only approved to treat a subset of GBM patients.

Market will resolve YES if a new GBM treatment — which is shown in a Phase III trial to positively impact progression free survival OR overall survival averages — is approved by the FDA before 12/31/2028. Otherwise, market resolves NO on 1/1/2029.