Resolves positively if there is a pan-European military force created before 2030. This might be an EU army or the army could be under the command of another institution.
See the same market for 2040: https://manifold.markets/B/will-a-european-or-eu-army-be-creat
To resolve positively,
the army would be under the command of a body with representation from among current EU-27 European Union countries (or their successors) totalling more than 200 million people in population.
the commanding body would not have representation from the United States (as NATO does)
the commanding body may have representation from countries in Europe that are not members of the EU.
Members of this armed service may be permanently assigned to the pan-European army, or temporarily under its command, assigned by their respective national armies.
The command infrastructure would give orders directly to the military force rather than going through national army command subject to individual nations' approval
There must be at least 100,000 active service personnel at one time. By comparison, France currently commands 203,000 Germany 183,000, and the United States 1,400,000.
Apr 14, 3:56pm: Will a European/EU army be created before 2030? → Will a European/EU army be created before 2030?
1,000
1.00@MalachiteEagle I don't know, but in that scenario there would be representation form current EU-27 EU countries that total more than 200 million people in population, so the market would resolve yes.