Biological immortality is an absence of aging. Specifically it is the absence of a sustained increase in rate of mortality as a function of chronological age.
A cell or organism that does not experience aging, or ceases to age at some point, is biologically immortal.
Resolves YES in 2046 if we have made significant progress in this area to reliably have first instances of induced biological immortality evidenced in animal subjects and first trials in humans have commenced.
Resolves NO in 2046 if we have found no means to induce biological immortality, animal testing is inconclusive and human trials have not commenced and are not projected to commence within the end of the year 2046.
1,000
1.00This would require dramatically successful breakthroughs immediately. Come bet on one: https://manifold.markets/ArunJohnson/will-300-lifespan-extension-in-roti?r=QXJ1bkpvaG5zb24
@PhoAI heat death of the universe, quantum fluctuations, ... This market is indeed underspecified, so different people will interpret it differently.
@Entropy Reading the explanation I understand that the probability of dying at any given age is the same as that at every other age (with the exception perhaps of childhood). It seems hard to interpret it any other way. However this does not mean people would live forever: they would have a half life, like radioactive decay.