I feel like this should stay open (or at least unresolved) past Dec 31 to allow for accurate reporting to come in

I can't believe I lost this opportunity to smack ideological traders

@HenriConfucius May as well buy up now! A related market if you're feeling conservative about the matter:

https://manifold.markets/JamesF/will-the-gaza-death-toll-be-over-15?r=Q2h1bWNodWx1bQ

@Chumchulum

can't buy no in this market cuz of an error

As for the other market, I bought some limits at over 50%. 150k by the end of the war isn't implausible. The war just needs to continue for 1 to 2 years with similar intensity.

Buy signal

@strutheo @Qoiuoiuoiu @Panfilo @mods it seems the latest NO bought was @strutheo's, maybe he should try to trade it and see if the bug is in effect.

I'm getting a "maker has insufficient balance" error trying to trade NO.

@Qoiuoiuoiu @mods Weird bug here.

@Panfilo Has anyone else encountered this? What could it be? Is it specific to this market?

is anyone still experiencing this? I see it in our Mod queue.

@shankypanky Yup

@shankypanky yep, me too

thanks all I added this to the queue yesterday and hope to have it resolved soon. I'll update in the comments when the team has a chance to look at it.

stay tuned...

Gaza has a population of 1.7 million, so this would require 29% of the Gazan population to be killed. That's Pol Pot levels of genocide, even when you take out the natural rates and people who died since the beginning of the siege (~30,000).

@BTE what is the source for resolution?

@MickBransfield I would say Gaza health ministry but who knows how long that will even still be operational. Human Rights Watch is a good third party.

@BTE It's not likely to matter but how about sources that are not aligned with Palestine? It's not as if Reuters, AP, etc. will not report on the death toll if it reaches such levels.

@HarrisonNathan So far the IDF has not disputed the casualty totals out of the Gaza health ministry. At least once they have said they think that number is very close to their own. So not sure why?

@BTE An analysis by statistician Abraham Wyner shows that the figures reported by the Gaza Health Ministry are nearly certain to be systematically falsified. https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers

@HarrisonNathan Has any Chinese statistician commented on the numbers? I would love some clearly non-western source or authority if possible.

@BTE I don't know.

@HarrisonNathan My best guess for the regularity is that there are literally more dead than can be counted, every day, and the regularity is the result of both the natural bounds on counting as a process and the natural averaging out of everything that occurs as a result. They probably can't keep track of who died when. They can just count their maximum count of bodies every day, with +/-15% based on manpower or complexity of picking through the rubble