Will over 1000 Gazans be killed by the IDF in 2026?
9
แน€1465
2026
63%
chance

Only direct, violent deaths count, so no starvation or death from a lack of medical care (unless the ailment in question was the result of Israeli violence)

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แน€1,000
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Something about even virtual fake profits from betting on mass murder feels incredibly wrong to me right now, so I'm not going to participate in this market.
With that said, I would expect a YES for this.
Do not expect the IDF's bloodthirsty slaughter of innocent civilians to end anytime soon.

bought แน€2 YES at 63%

@Athena I disagree, not on whether they will kill more civilians, but on whether a Manifold market about it is wrong. I think that things like this ground the reality of the situation.

@Balasar at the end of the day, you are profiting (now fake money, thankfully) off of people being killed by betting YES here. That inherently rubs me the wrong way.