BBC News - 2023 confirmed as world's hottest year on record

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67861954

https://www.npr.org/2023/12/28/1221827923/2023-hottest-year-record-climate-change

Getting to too high a percentage? How about betting on how hot?

e.g.

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/pays-10-for-each-001c-2023-temperat

Pays 10% for each 0.01C 2023 temperature anomaly is above 1.05C per Gistemp versus 1951-1980 base period

50% chance. Data in no smoothing column at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt (or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data) Resolution If the anomaly versus 1951 to 1980 base period per gistemp LOTI is reported as 1.15C or higher this claim pays 100% If the anomaly versus 1951 to 1980 base period per gistemp LOTI is reported as 1.05C or lower this claim pays 0% If 1.06C claims pays 10% and so on.

What data is used for this question?

Also

If it is 1st warmest in table data but text indicates something like: The difference is within the margin of error so that they cannot say for certain whether 2016 2020 or 2023 was the hottest year, does this resolve yes?

If it shows as 1= in table does it resolve no or 50% or yes?

@ChristopherRandles Relevant comment by the market creator on another market: https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-2023-be-the-hottest-year-on-re#DDTlxXLW9PD5pwhx0ky8

(but it would be nice to have it confirmed)

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/08/world/extreme-global-temperature-heat-records-climate/index.html#:~:text=The%20world%20is%20blasting%20through,they%20don't%20yet%20understand.

Global heat in ‘uncharted territory’ as scientists warn 2023 could be the hottest year on record | CNN

The world is blasting through climate records as scientists are sounding the alarm that 2023 could be the hottest year on record, and that the climate crisis could be altering our weather in ways they don’t yet understand.

Arbitrage with
/itsTomekK/will-2023-be-the-hottest-year-on-re (NOAA data)
/StevenK/will-2023-be-the-warmest-year-on-re (NASA GISTEMP data)

If things aren't looking up, then I'll just take my shirt off and we'll be good. 😉

@LukeHanks If it gets that hot and we all take our shirts off we will start a skin cancer pandemic 🤣

arb

https://manifold.markets/StevenK/will-2023-be-the-warmest-year-on-re?r=amVyZW1pYWhzYW1yb28

https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-2023-be-the-hottest-year-on-re?r=amVyZW1pYWhzYW1yb28

Will 2023 be the warmest year on record?

73% chance. I will resolve this according to NASA’s GISTEMP data here (or wherever it’s available), counting an exact match (1.02) as a “no”. If GISTEMP isn’t available, I’ll look at NOAA, HadCRUT, or Berkeley Earth temperature data, in that order. See also 2022.