What is the resolution criterion? A government making leaving noises? A referendum passing? A government triggering Article 50? The notification of leaving coming into effect, two years (if not amended by consensus of all members including the one leaving) after triggering? These are all different things and only one of them means the country has actually left.

Considering the present political scenario, it appears highly unlikely that any European country will leave the EU before 2025. The EU Exit Index, suggests that the UK was a unique case and that no other state is likely to follow in the near future.

While certain European parties express Euroscepticism, like France's National Rally and Greece's Golden Dawn – the latter having recently been banned from its own parliament – their limited political influence currently seems to hinder significant change. Moreover, parties like Italy's Italexit and Hungary's Our Homeland Movement still face internal divisions or lack broad support. The intricate exit process, as seen in the case of the UK with Brexit, involves challenging negotiations, amendments, and referendums.

Additionally, current economic challenges, amplified by the Russia-Ukraine war, further deter exits. Therefore, despite isolated Euroscepticism, the overall political landscapes and complex challenges make any EU departure unlikely before 2025.