Will a video game released after 2023 be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2028?
Will a video game released after 2023 be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2028?
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79%
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Resolves YES if some video-game that released this year or later gets into the top 10 in the List of best-selling video games, according to Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games. Must be top 10 at any time before market close (EOY 2028).
See also:
Will a video game released after 2023 be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2025?10%
Will a video game released after 2023 be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2026?60%
Will a video game released after 2023 be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2027?70%
Will a video game released after 2023 be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2028?79% (This one)
Will a video game involving LLM dialogue be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2028?39%
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1,0001.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
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Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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