Will HOC beat the big AI labs to AGI?
17
Ṁ11k2030
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
HOC is HigherOrderCO, see https://higherorderco.com. Context:
Resolution criteria:
If HOC builds the first AGI as determined a panel of 3 manifold mods without a position on this market, the market resolves YES. Resolves NO otherwise.
The market close date will be extended until an AGI is achieved.
Get
1,000and
1.00
Sort by:
Conditional on no one else achieving AGI first, will HOC build an AGI by September 8 2028?
Related questions
Related questions
Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
4% chance
Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years?
46% chance
Will Anthropic be the best on AI safety among major AI labs at the end of 2025?
93% chance
Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?
3% chance
Will a humanoid AGI be used in a public setting by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?
4% chance
Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?
31% chance
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
7% chance
Which lab will claim that they have developed AGI first?
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
32% chance