Will a general European Union-Mercosur trade agreement be concluded before Dec, 31st 2024?
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15
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Dec 31
9%
chance

Context

The European Union and Mercosur states – Argentina, Brazil Paraguay and Uruguay – reached a political agreement on 28 June 2019 for an ambitious, balanced and comprehensive trade agreement.

The EU is Mercosur's number one trade and investment partner. EU exports to Mercosur were €45 billion in goods in 2021 and €17 billion in services in 2020.

The EU is the biggest foreign investor in Mercosur with a stock of €330 billion in 2020. While the relationship is very substantial both exporters and potential investors face barriers in Mercosur markets.

The goal of the new EU-Mercosur trade deal is to

  • Increase bilateral trade and investment, and lower tariff and non-tariff trade barriers, notably for small and medium sized enterprises

  • Create more stable and predictable rules for trade and investment through better and stronger rules, e.g. in the area of intellectual property rights (including geographical indications), food safety standards, competition and good regulatory practices

  • Promote joint values such as sustainable development, by strengthening worker’s rights, fight climate change, increase environmental protection, encourage companies to act responsibly, and uphold high food safety standards

[Source]

Resolution

This market will resolve as YES if all member states of both organizations and the European Parliament approve a general trade agreement (based on the June 2019 understanding or not) between the two blocs before Dec, 31st 2024; or NO otherwise.

Close date updated to 2024-12-31 12:00 am

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There’s a fresh optimism for breakthrough after previous objections from Argentina and France.

https://www.politico.eu/article/mercosur-mull-last-chance-summit-coming-weeks-close-eu-trade-deal/

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