https://x.com/TreyYingst/status/1865651411851117026
[edit for clarification]
Where was Bashar al-Assad at 1:55am EST on 12/8/2024?
DEAD or ALIVE
Update 2024-13-12 (PST): If no credible reporting answers this question by 3/8/2025 (90 days), market will resolve as N/A (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
1.00No idea on timing, but I'm hearing Syria -> Lebanon -> Russia with an assist from Hizbollah.
Edit - This is 'wrong', the rumours were about other officials/relatives. According the Reuters, Assad himself went from Damscus to a Russian base in Latakia then on to Moscow. He was last spoken to by the then Syrian PM via phone at 10:30pm local time.
@BishopG are you waiting for further info/sources to resolve this? What are you conditions for resolution?
I am waiting to see credible reporting that confirms what time/on what flight Assad left Syria for Russia. This market asks where Assad was at 1:55am EST (6:55am UTC) on December 8th 2024.
There was a lot of chatter about flight RB9218, which took off from Damascus at 1:55am UTC and disappeared off radar at 2:38am UTC near Homs, Syria, after an abrupt turn and descent. Some reports claimed Assad was on this flight and that it was shot down. (Reported by Reuters around 6:40am UTC, later deleted.) Ukrainian intelligence services said those reports were Russian disinformation used as cover while Russia helped Assad escape the country.
BBC News' Russian service reported that Assad may have been on flight RFF8796, tracked at 11:34am UTC flying out of Latakia, Syria and arriving in Moscow at 3:36pm UTC.
Russia's foreign ministry announced at 11:28am UTC that Assad had left Syria.
Russia's TASS reported at 5:44pm UTC that Assad had arrived in Moscow.
If anyone has any information or reporting that may help resolve this market, please share in the comments.
@BishopG thanks for your detailed response. If no new information comes to light by the end of the year, how will you resolve this?
@Shrill I will give it up to 90 days - if there is no credible reporting that answers this question by 3/8/2025, market will resolve N/A